Odds and Betting Tips for Athletics vs Phillies – 7/14/2024

Oakland Athletics

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies and Oakland Athletics square off on July 14, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park in the third game of their interleague series. The Phillies, boasting a remarkable 62-33 record this season, have their eyes set on extending their dominance. Meanwhile, the Athletics, struggling at 36-61, aim to salvage some pride. In yesterday’s game, Philadelphia thumped Oakland with an 11-5 victory, underscoring the disparity in their current forms.

Philadelphia will send Michael Mercado to the mound. Mercado’s season has been rocky, reflected in his 7.04 ERA. His last outing was particularly rough, as he allowed five earned runs over just two innings. However, his 6.04 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and might see better days ahead. Mercado’s low strikeout rate (17.1 K%) could find an advantage against an Athletics lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for most strikeouts.

On the other side, Oakland counters with Joey Estes, whose 5.53 ERA doesn’t inspire much confidence either. Estes also struggled in his last start, surrendering eight earned runs in two innings. While his xFIP of 4.94 indicates he might have been a bit unlucky, his projections remain dismal. He is expected to allow 3.2 earned runs and 5.3 hits over an average of 4.5 innings today, both terrible projections.

Offensively, the Phillies are a powerhouse, ranking 2nd in overall offense, 3rd in batting average, and 5th in home runs. Bryce Harper continues to be the standout performer with a .303 batting average and 21 home runs. Kyle Schwarber has been hot lately, hitting .294 with two homers in the last week. The Athletics, on the other hand, rank 26th in offense and 28th in batting average but do have some pop, ranking 7th in home runs. Brent Rooker has been their best hitter, carrying a .287 average and 19 home runs this season, and has been particularly hot over the last week, hitting .409.

The Phillies bullpen is ranked 1st in MLB, significantly outshining the Athletics bullpen, which ranks 12th. This bullpen disparity further tilts the game in favor of Philadelphia.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the projections give Philadelphia a 60% chance of winning today, which suggests there could be value in betting on Oakland as their win probability is 8% higher than the betting market suggests. With the Phillies being heavy favorites, this game promises to be an intriguing matchup for bettors looking for an edge.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Joey Estes – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)
  Joey Estes has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 7.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.238) provides evidence that Brent Rooker has had positive variance on his side this year with his .287 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Oakland Athletics have 6 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Lawrence Butler, Max Schuemann, Zack Gelof, Seth Brown, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  In the past week, Nick Castellanos’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-150)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 95 games (+20.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+8.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• Garrett Stubbs – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Garrett Stubbs has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 51% ROI)