Houston Astros
Oakland Athletics
(+100/-120)+120
The Oakland Athletics will host the Houston Astros at Oakland Coliseum on July 23, 2024, for the second game of their series. The Athletics, currently struggling with a 40-62 record, face an uphill battle against the Astros, who have an above-average 52-48 record. This American League West matchup is significant for the Astros, who are vying for a stronger playoff position.
Oakland’s Osvaldo Bido and Houston’s Jake Bloss are the projected starters. Both right-handed pitchers have had their challenges this season. Bido, ranked #232 among MLB starting pitchers, has a 3.44 ERA but a concerning 5.73 xFIP. His peripheral stats suggest luck has been on his side, and he may regress. On the flip side, Bloss has a 4.70 ERA, with his underlying metrics indicating he’s been somewhat unlucky and could improve, given his 4.07 xERA.
The Athletics’ offense has been inconsistent, ranking 20th overall in underlying talent, with notable struggles in team batting average (#27) and stolen bases (#23). Despite these weaknesses, their power at the plate is evident, ranking 4th in home runs. The Astros, with a more balanced and potent offense, rank 9th overall, 1st in team batting average, and 10th in home runs. Their ability to make contact could exploit Bido’s control issues, even though they are not known for drawing walks.
Recent performances highlight the potential impact players for this game. Max Schuemann has been the Athletics’ standout over the last week, boasting a .545 batting average and a 1.643 OPS. For the Astros, Yordan Alvarez has been equally impressive, hitting .429 with a 1.429 OPS over the same period.
On the mound, both Bido and Bloss project to pitch around 4.5 innings, with Bido allowing 2.5 earned runs and Bloss allowing 2.2. Both pitchers have struggled with limiting hits and walks, which could result in a high-scoring affair, reflected in the game’s total set at 9.0 runs.
The betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Astros holding a slight edge with a -135 moneyline and an implied win probability of 55%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns closely with the betting markets, giving the Astros a 52% chance to win. Given their stronger overall performance this season and the Athletics’ struggles, the Astros seem poised to take this game.
Houston Astros Insights
- Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Extreme groundball batters like Jeremy Pena are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Osvaldo Bido.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)In today’s game, Yainer Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35% rate (84th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Oakland Athletics Insights
- Osvaldo Bido – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Osvaldo Bido’s 2377-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 76th percentile among all starting pitchers.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)Lawrence Butler has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The Oakland Athletics have 6 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Schuemann, Zack Gelof, Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Seth Brown).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+120)The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 39 games at home (+7.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+120)The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 48 games (+14.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-145)Lawrence Butler has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+10.05 Units / 56% ROI)