Nationals vs Pirates Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 9/08/2024

Washington Nationals

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Washington Nationals on September 8, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tough spot this season, with records of 66-76 and 64-78, respectively. While neither team is contending for a playoff spot, the Pirates will look to change their fortunes in the fourth game of this series. In yesterday’s matchup, the Nationals edged the Pirates in an 8-6 victory, highlighting their struggle despite a recent uptick in performances.

Pirates’ starting pitcher Jared Jones enters with the 78th best ranking among MLB starters, showing he’s above average, despite a 5-7 record and a solid 3.91 ERA. Analysts note that Jones has shown promise, even as the Pirates offense ranks 28th overall, struggling in various aspects, including a dismal hitting performance over the season. Today, he’s projected to pitch 5.1 innings and allow around 2.2 earned runs, which could give the Pirates a fighting chance.

Contrastingly, Nationals’ Patrick Corbin, a left-handed pitcher with one of the worst ranks in the league, has a shaky 5-12 record and a 5.41 ERA. His projections show he’s likely to surrender around 3.2 earned runs, not ideal given the Nationals’ own offensive struggles, particularly in home runs, where they are 29th.

Despite their recent loss, the Pirates are favored in today’s betting markets with a moneyline of -160, reflecting a win probability higher than their implied odds suggest. The projections indicate the Pirates could score around 5.18 runs, significantly leaning into their ability to capitalize on Corbin’s vulnerabilities. With both teams fighting for relevance, expect a compelling matchup at PNC Park.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  Patrick Corbin is projected to average 3.15 earned runs in today’s outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Dylan Crews has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  James Wood has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 9th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jared Jones – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  With 6 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Jared Jones has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Bryan De La Cruz’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 89.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 80.3-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Pirates projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .315 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+10.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-155)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 75 of their last 132 games (+9.80 Units / 6% ROI)
• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Patrick Corbin has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.30 Units / 46% ROI)