Nationals vs D-Backs Prediction and Game Breakdown – Saturday May 31, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Washington Nationals clash once again on May 31, 2025, after the Nationals edged out the Diamondbacks 9-7 in a high-scoring affair the previous day. Both teams sit at 27-30, struggling to find consistency this season, with neither team performing up to expectations.

On the mound, Arizona is set to start Brandon Pfaadt, who has a solid ERA of 3.90 but carries a concerning 6.36 xERA, suggesting he may have benefited from good fortune thus far. Pfaadt has started 11 games this season and boasts a commendable win/loss record of 7-3. However, his projections for today indicate he may struggle, as he is expected to allow 3.1 earned runs over 5.8 innings pitched.

Conversely, Washington’s Mike Soroka takes the hill with a less encouraging 5.61 ERA and a troubling 1-3 record over five starts. Despite his struggles, the projections suggest he might improve, as his xFIP of 3.44 indicates he has been unlucky. Soroka’s projected performance today also looks shaky, with expectations of 4.9 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank as the 4th best in MLB, showcasing their potential to capitalize on Soroka’s weaknesses. Their power is evident, as they’ve hit 77 home runs this season, ranking 5th overall. In contrast, the Nationals’ offense is merely average, sitting at 17th in MLB rankings.

With the Diamondbacks favored at -190, their strong offensive capabilities against a struggling pitcher like Soroka could be the key to breaking their recent losing streak. The Game Total is set at a high 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for another offensive showdown.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mike Soroka – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Given that flyball pitchers hold a sizeable advantage over flyball bats, Mike Soroka and his 44.8% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in this outing matching up with 2 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Extreme groundball bats like Josh Bell tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+160)
  The Washington Nationals projected batting order ranks as the 5th-weakest of the day in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Pfaadt has gone to his secondary pitches 5.9% more often this season (50.3%) than he did last year (44.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Randal Grichuk has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+9.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+160)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+7.75 Units / 111% ROI)
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)
  Josh Bell has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 away games (+22.90 Units / 458% ROI)