Nationals vs D-Backs Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Sunday, June 01, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Washington Nationals on June 1, 2025, both teams are looking to recover from their recent contest, which saw the Nationals triumph over the Diamondbacks by a score of 11-7 just a day prior. Despite both teams hovering around .500, with the Diamondbacks at 27-31 and the Nationals at 28-30, the stakes remain significant as they vie for every win in a tightly contested season.

Corbin Burnes is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks, and his season has been marked by excellence, boasting a 2.72 ERA and a solid Win/Loss record of 3-2. However, advanced metrics suggest Burnes may have been a bit lucky, as his 3.73 xFIP indicates potential hurdles ahead. Nonetheless, his ability to pitch deep into games gives Arizona a crucial edge, particularly against a struggling Mitchell Parker of the Nationals. Parker’s 4.65 ERA and high walk rate point to a challenging matchup against a powerful Diamondbacks offense that ranks 4th in MLB.

While the Diamondbacks’ offense ranks as the 4th best in MLB and excels in home runs, they must capitalize on Parker’s tendency to induce fly balls, which can easily turn into home runs in Chase Field. The projections favor Arizona with an implied team total of 5.40 runs, nudging them into a position that calls for a bounce-back win after yesterday’s letdown. The Nationals will need to figure out how to support Parker if they want to disrupt the Diamondbacks’ anticipated resurgence. With the Diamondbacks favored at -235, this matchup is a pivotal one for both squads as they look to solidify their positions in the standings.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+195)
  The Washington Nationals outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Keibert Ruiz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Washington Nationals have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Given that groundball hitters struggle against groundball pitchers, Corbin Burnes (46.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 6 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Eugenio Suarez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last year’s 92.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Arizona’s 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the game: #6 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -1.0 (-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+195)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+8.30 Units / 119% ROI)
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+230/-315)
  James Wood has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+15.25 Units / 152% ROI)