Nationals vs Brewers Picks and Betting Tips – July 12th, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers and Washington Nationals are set to face off at American Family Field on July 12, 2024. The Brewers, with a solid 54-40 record, are having a strong season and looking to bounce back after a narrow 1-0 loss to the Pirates on July 11. Meanwhile, the Nationals, struggling at 42-52, are coming off a 7-0 shutout defeat against the Mets.

On the mound, the Brewers are projected to start Freddy Peralta, one of the elite pitchers in MLB, currently ranked as the 12th best starting pitcher. Peralta has been slightly unlucky this season, as indicated by his 3.34 SIERA, suggesting better performances ahead. He boasts a 6-4 record with a 3.95 ERA and is expected to pitch around six innings, allowing just 2.1 earned runs while striking out 6.7 batters on average. Given the Nationals’ lack of power, ranking 29th in home runs, Peralta’s propensity for flyballs might not hurt him much in this matchup.

Jackson Rutledge is set to start for the Nationals. Rutledge has had a rough start to the season, with a 9.00 ERA from his lone bullpen appearance. Although his 2.64 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky, his projections paint a grim picture: allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out just 3.6 batters over 4.7 innings on average. Facing the Brewers’ patient offense, which ranks 3rd in walks, Rutledge might struggle despite his good control.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 8th overall and 4th in batting average, though they lag in home runs. They’ll look to capitalize on Rutledge’s struggles. Willy Adames has been their standout hitter, while Rhys Hoskins has been hot over the last week with three home runs and six RBIs. On the other side, the Nationals’ offense is ranked 24th and lacks power, but they’ve been effective on the base paths, ranking 3rd in stolen bases. CJ Abrams has been their best hitter, with a .271 batting average and 14 home runs.

The Brewers are heavy favorites, with a -265 moneyline and a 70% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects Milwaukee as a big favorite, with a 69% win probability. With a high implied team total of 5.23 runs, the Brewers are poised for a strong showing against the struggling Nationals.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jackson Rutledge – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Among all starting pitchers, Jackson Rutledge’s fastball velocity of 95.2 mph is in the 89th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates CJ Abrams’s true offensive talent to be a .315, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .040 difference between that figure and his actual .355 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+160/-210)
  Compared to average, Freddy Peralta has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 7.3 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Garrett Mitchell is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-270)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+10.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+230)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 85 games (+5.45 Units / 6% ROI)
• Jesse Winker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-185/+140)
  Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)