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Mets vs Padres Picks and Betting Tips – August 22nd, 2024

New York Mets logo

New York Mets

@

San Diego Padres

+135O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)
-155

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the New York Mets on August 22, 2024, this matchup presents an intriguing battle in the National League. The Padres, currently holding a solid record of 72-56, find themselves in the thick of the playoff race, while the Mets sit at 66-61, trying to maintain their above-average season. With both teams vying for a Wild Card spot, the stakes could not be higher.

In their last outing, Dylan Cease will take the mound for the Padres, boasting a 12-9 record and an impressive ERA of 3.46. He has been a consistent performer, ranked as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Cease’s ability to generate strikeouts (projected at 7.6 per game) could be crucial against a Mets lineup that has had difficulty with high-strikeout pitchers.

Luis Severino, on the other hand, is scheduled to start for the Mets. With a Win/Loss record of 8-6 and an ERA of 3.91, he is seen as a below-average pitcher in this matchup. Severino’s low strikeout rate (19.6 K%) coupled with the Padres’ ability to limit strikeouts (ranked 1st in fewest strikeouts) could give San Diego a considerable advantage.

Both teams have strong offensive capabilities; the Padres rank 1st in batting average and 8th in overall offensive performance, while the Mets are 9th overall and 4th in home runs. However, the projections favor the Padres, with their offense expected to score around 4.51 runs versus the Mets’ forecasted total of 3.90 runs.

New York Mets Insights

  • Luis Severino – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
    Luis Severino’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (61.2 vs. 48.9% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
    Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
  • Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
    Despite posting a .372 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mark Vientos has been very fortunate given the .054 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .318.
    Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
  • Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
    Francisco Lindor pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
    Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

  • Dylan Cease – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
    Dylan Cease’s fastball velocity has jumped 1.4 mph this season (96.3 mph) over where it was last year (94.9 mph).
    Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
  • Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
    In the past two weeks, Jurickson Profar’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8% down to 0%.
    Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
  • Dylan Cease – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
    According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Luis Campusano (the Padres’s expected catcher today) is considered to be a horrible pitch framer.
    Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

  • San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-155)
    The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 53 games (+13.55 Units / 19% ROI)
  • New York Mets – Moneyline (+135)
    The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 76 games (+7.50 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1500)
    Jurickson Profar has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 45 games (+20.30 Units / 45% ROI)
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