Mets vs Nationals Match Preview and Winning Probability – Thursday August 21, 2025

New York Mets

@

Washington Nationals

The New York Mets visit Nationals Park on August 21, 2025, for the third game of their series against the Washington Nationals. The Mets are currently 67-59, enjoying an above-average season, while the Nationals sit at 51-75, struggling through a tough campaign. The Mets claimed victory in yesterday’s matchup, adding to the Nationals’ woes.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start MacKenzie Gore, who has had an up-and-down year with a 5-12 record and a 4.04 ERA, which is above average. Gore ranks as the 62nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his 3.51 xFIP, which is lower than his ERA. He projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.8 batters. However, he does have concerning projections, allowing 5.1 hits and 2.0 walks.

The Mets will counter with Sean Manaea, who has had a rocky season with a 1-1 record and a 4.78 ERA. His 3.63 xFIP indicates he may also be due for better outcomes. Manaea is a high-strikeout pitcher facing a Nationals offense that ranks 5th in the league for least strikeouts, which could benefit the Nationals. However, Manaea’s flyball tendencies might favor him against a Nationals lineup that has hit just 119 home runs this season, ranking 28th in the league.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 23rd overall and 20th in batting average, while the Mets sit at 11th overall and have a solid 8th rank in home runs. The projections suggest the Mets are favored to score 4.27 runs compared to the Nationals’ low total of 3.73 runs. With the Nationals’ best hitter showing signs of life recently, they might surprise, but they will need a strong effort from Gore to compete effectively against a better-performing Mets squad.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Sean Manaea will tally an average of 16.7 outs in this matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Over the last 7 days, Pete Alonso’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 19.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. MacKenzie Gore has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 6% more often this year (50.7%) than he did last season (44.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  This season, James Wood has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 99 mph compared to last year’s 96.6 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Washington Nationals (26.2% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the most strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+13.40 Units / 27% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 60 away games (+6.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-150)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.25 Units / 23% ROI)