Mets vs Brewers Match Preview and Winning Probability – Thursday October 03, 2024

New York Mets

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets face off on October 3, 2024, in a pivotal National League Wild Card clash at American Family Field. Both teams are neck-and-neck in the playoff race, setting the stage for a thrilling Game 3 in their series. The Brewers come into this matchup with a razor-thin edge, having outlasted the Mets 5-3 in their previous meeting on October 2.

Pitching wise, the Brewers will start Tobias Myers, who, despite being ranked #157 in the Power Rankings, has posted a noteworthy 3.00 ERA across his 26 starts this season. However, his xFIP of 3.97 suggests he’s received a bit of luck this season, hinting that regression may be looming. On the other mound, the Mets counter with Jose Quintana, a left-hander with a 3.75 ERA. While both pitchers have had their fair share of fortune, the projections see Myers possibly having the upper hand with a slightly better control on walks.

On offense, Milwaukee boasts the #10 ranked lineup, with skills evenly spread, ranking 7th in batting average and an outstanding 2nd in stolen bases. New York’s offense is not far behind at #9, with a penchant for power, ranking 6th in home runs. The Brewers rely on Willy Adames, their season-long standout, while Brice Turang has been red-hot recently, sporting a .476 batting average over the last week.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Brewers a slight edge with a 54% win probability. This projection aligns closely with the current betting lines, which offer a marginally favorable outlook for the Brewers. As both teams strive to seize momentum in this tight Wild Card race, all eyes will be on how these two balanced squads clash on the field.

New York Mets Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Quintana to throw 79 pitches in this game (most on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)
  Jose Iglesias’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+110)
  The New York Mets projected batting order ranks as the strongest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Tobias Myers – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Tobias Myers will hold the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 94 of their last 164 games (+11.50 Units / 5% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 110 games (+19.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.75 Units / 41% ROI)