New York Mets
Milwaukee Brewers
(-110/-110)+120
The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets are set to face off for the third game of their series on September 29, 2024, at American Family Field. This National League matchup features the Brewers, who have been dominant this season with a 93-68 record, positioned ahead of the Mets, who are also having a solid season at 87-72. Milwaukee is coming off a commanding 6-0 victory over the Mets in their last outing, adding to the intrigue of this final matchup in the series.
On the mound for the Brewers will be Colin Rea, a right-handed pitcher who has shown flashes of brilliance this season with a 12-5 record and a 4.17 ERA. However, his peripheral stats suggest he might be getting lucky, with a 4.71 FIP indicating potential regression. Rea’s high-flyball tendency could be problematic against a powerful Mets lineup that ranks 6th in the league for home runs.
The Mets will counter with left-hander David Peterson, who boasts a sterling 3.08 ERA. Yet, his advanced metrics suggest he’s been fortunate, with his 4.17 xFIP indicating a possible decline in performance. Despite this, Peterson’s ability to limit runs effectively could be crucial against a Brewers offense ranked 10th overall and 8th in batting average.
In terms of offense, the Brewers’ Willy Adames has been a standout performer, while Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with his impressive season stats. For Milwaukee, Jake Bauers has been on a tear over the past week, boasting a .500 batting average and a 1.375 OPS, providing a spark to their lineup.
Despite the Mets being slight favorites with a -135 moneyline and 55% implied win probability, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests a closer contest, projecting a 54% win probability for the Mets. With both teams showcasing strong offensive capabilities and question marks surrounding the starting pitchers, this game promises to be a tightly contested battle.
New York Mets Insights
- David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)David Peterson has used his sinker 6.7% more often this season (31.3%) than he did last year (24.6%).Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-240)Using Statcast data, Jose Iglesias ranks in the 98th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .308.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+120)Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Eric Haase – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Eric Haase has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The underlying talent of the Milwaukee Brewers projected batting order today (.303 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .318 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+120)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 92 of their last 160 games (+11.95 Units / 6% ROI)
- New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (+120)The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 101 games (+14.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- Luisangel Acuna – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200/-7000)Luisangel Acuna has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+27.00 Units / 338% ROI)