Mets vs Brewers Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Wednesday October 2, 2024

New York Mets

@

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets are set for a crucial National League Wild Card matchup on October 2, 2024, at American Family Field. This is the second game in their series, with the Mets having taken the first game with a convincing 8-4 win. The Brewers will look to even the series and boost their postseason aspirations.

The Brewers, with an implied win probability of 53%, are slight favorites according to betting markets, though THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a slightly higher win probability at 54%. They rely on the arm of Frankie Montas, who has been unlucky this season. His xFIP of 4.26 suggests he might perform better than his 4.84 ERA indicates. Montas has a projected average of 5.0 innings with 2.1 earned runs, which is a promising outlook given his recent performances.

On the other side, the Mets counter with Sean Manaea. Despite Manaea’s impressive 3.47 ERA, his 4.04 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate. His last outing was a struggle, allowing five earned runs in just four innings. The Mets’ offense, ranked 9th, will look to support him with power, ranking 6th in home runs.

Both teams boast potent offenses, with the Brewers ranked 10th and the Mets 9th overall. Milwaukee’s standout, Willy Adames, brings solid production, while Francisco Lindor leads the charge for New York, delivering a strong .840 OPS this season. In the past week, Gary Sanchez has been the Brewers’ hottest bat, hitting .400 with a 1.155 OPS, while Lindor has also been impressive for the Mets, with two home runs and a .946 OPS over the same span.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  With 7 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Sean Manaea encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  J.D. Martinez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-135)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the strongest among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brice Turang has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Jackson Chourio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+7.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+115)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 114 games (+16.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.75 Units / 41% ROI)