Boston Red Sox
Kansas City Royals
(-120/+100)-140
On August 7, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will host the Boston Red Sox at Kauffman Stadium for the third game in their series. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Royals holding a record of 63-52 and the Red Sox at 61-51. This matchup features two starting pitchers with different trajectories; Cole Ragans has been an elite performer, ranking 15th among starting pitchers, while Kutter Crawford sits at 77th, indicating a clear disparity.
In their last contest, the Royals showcased their offensive prowess, with Vinnie Pasquantino leading the way over the past week, recording 12 hits and five home runs. This type of production from their best hitter bodes well for Kansas City’s chances against Crawford, who has struggled with allowing hits—projecting to give up 5.2 hits on average today. Ragans has a strong strikeout rate of 28.9%, emphasizing his ability to capitalize against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts.
The Royals are favored with a moneyline of -150 and boast an implied total of 4.62 runs, suggesting confidence in their offense against a Red Sox bullpen ranked 16th in MLB. Conversely, Boston’s lineup, while impressive overall, may find Ragans challenging, especially given his low projected earned runs allowed (2.5) and the Red Sox’s tendency to strike out.
With the stakes rising for both teams, this game promises to be crucial in the context of the standings, and the Royals could leverage their solid home performance to secure a pivotal win against a competitive Red Sox squad. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a well-matched offensive battle ahead.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Kutter Crawford – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Kutter Crawford has relied on his curveball 6.1% less often this season (6%) than he did last year (12.1%).Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Ceddanne Rafaela has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 83-mph over the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected offense today (.319 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .332 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Cole Ragans – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Cole Ragans’s fastball velocity over his last 3 starts (93.8 mph) has been quite a bit worse than than his seasonal rate (95 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)Maikel Garcia is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Boston (#3-best on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Kansas City’s 89.4-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in MLB: #4 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games at home (+7.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 54 away games (+14.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 45 games (+12.55 Units / 23% ROI)