Texas Rangers
New York Yankees
(+100/-120)-155
The New York Yankees will host the Texas Rangers on May 22, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting matchup. This game marks the third contest of the series, with the Yankees winning the prior game 4-3 on May 21, 2025. The Yankees currently sit comfortably at 29-19, showcasing a strong season that has them looking like playoff contenders. Conversely, the Rangers are hovering around the .500 mark at 25-25, suggesting an average campaign thus far.
On the mound, the Yankees are projected to start Carlos Rodon, who has a solid 3.17 ERA this season, ranking him as the 60th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Although he has shown flashes of brilliance, Rodon’s high walk rate (10.2 BB%) could be tested by the Rangers, who have the 3rd least walks in baseball. This mismatch may work in Rodon’s favor, as an impatient offense like Texas may struggle to exploit his control issues.
On the opposing side, Nathan Eovaldi takes the hill for the Rangers. Eovaldi has been exceptional this season, boasting an impressive 1.61 ERA and ranking 37th among MLB starters. Despite his elite performance, projections suggest that he may face challenges against the Yankees’ powerful lineup, which has hit the most home runs in MLB this season (83). The Yankees’ offense, ranked 1st in MLB, has also excelled at drawing walks, a potential advantage against Eovaldi, who has a low walk rate at 3.5 BB%.
With a Game Total set at a low 7.0 runs, expectations are that runs may be tough to come by. The Yankees enter as favorites with a moneyline of -155, reflecting their strong form, while the Rangers are seen as underdogs with a +135 line. As the Yankees aim to extend their winning streak, they are expected to leverage their potent offense against a strong but potentially vulnerable Eovaldi.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)Nathan Eovaldi’s fastball velocity has fallen 2 mph this season (93.4 mph) below where it was last season (95.4 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Jonah Heim’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 89.8-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 82.4-mph in the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Kyle Higashioka pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #7 HR venue in the league today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Extreme flyball bats like Aaron Judge tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected lineup today (.329 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .352 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+145)The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games at home (+5.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- Texas Rangers – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-150/+120)The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 37 games (+16.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 28% ROI)