Match Preview: Rangers vs D-Backs Game Forecast – Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On September 2, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Texas Rangers at Chase Field for the second game of their series. The D-Backs enter this matchup trailing in the standings with a record of 68-71, reflecting an average season. Meanwhile, the Rangers, slightly better positioned at 72-67, are enjoying an above-average performance this year. After a tightly contested game yesterday, where the Diamondbacks fell to the Rangers 7-5, they’ll look to bounce back and capitalize on their offensive firepower.

Arizona’s lineup has been solid, ranking 4th in MLB for runs scored, showcasing their ability to generate offense. They also feature a potent home-run hitting capability with 193 bombs this season. Conversely, Texas has struggled at the plate, sitting at 25th in runs scored and batting average. Their power metrics are more average, placing 15th in home runs. This stark contrast gives the Diamondbacks an edge as they look to capitalize on a shaky Rangers offense.

On the mound, the D-Backs will turn to Nabil Crismatt, who holds a 1.84 ERA this year but has been lucky compared to his 4.21 xFIP. Crismatt has shown effectiveness at times, though he projects to allow around 2.9 earned runs and 5.8 hits today, leaving room for concern. Jake Latz, starting for the Rangers, also struggles, with a 3.13 ERA and projecting poorly in terms of innings and runs allowed.

Given the strengths of Arizona’s offense against the backdrop of Texas’s pitching woes, the projections lean favorably toward the Diamondbacks, making them an intriguing option for bettors. With an implied team total of 4.61 runs, Arizona’s chances to capitalize on their offensive prowess could prove decisive in securing a victory.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jake Latz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  In his previous start, Jake Latz was in good form and put up 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Ezequiel Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Ezequiel Duran’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 84.1-mph seasonal average has fallen to 76.8-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Nabil Crismatt – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Nabil Crismatt has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 8.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Geraldo Perdomo’s true offensive ability to be a .313, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .050 disparity between that figure and his actual .363 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks in this game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .314, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .328 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 64 of their last 121 games (+15.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 58 games (+13.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 31% ROI)