Match Preview: Phillies vs Astros Game Forecast – Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Houston Astros

On June 25, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Minute Maid Park in what promises to be an exciting interleague matchup. The Astros are looking to build on their momentum after winning 1-0 against the Phillies in yesterday’s game, while Philadelphia is coming off a tough loss. Both teams possess impressive records, with the Astros sitting at 46-33 and the Phillies at 47-32, indicating that both squads are having great seasons.

The starting pitchers present a compelling contrast. Colton Gordon, projected to start for the Astros, has faced challenges this season, ranking 176th among MLB starters according to advance metrics. Although he holds a respectable Win/Loss record of 2-1, his 4.54 ERA and 3.57 xFIP suggest that he may be due for improvement. In his last outing, Gordon managed to pitch 5 innings with 2 earned runs, but he is projected to pitch only 4.9 innings today, allowing 2.6 earned runs on average.

In contrast, Zack Wheeler will take the mound for the Phillies as one of the league’s elite pitchers, currently ranked 3rd overall. With a stellar 2.61 ERA and 7-2 record, Wheeler is projected to pitch 6.1 innings today and is expected to allow just 2.0 earned runs. His recent performance included a solid 5-inning outing with no earned runs and 8 strikeouts against a challenging lineup.

Offensively, the Astros rank 15th in the league, while the Phillies are 8th, showcasing Philadelphia’s strength at the plate. Despite their recent struggles, the Astros have the potential to capitalize on Wheeler’s tendency to allow hits. With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, the odds are favoring the Phillies, yet the projections suggest that Houston’s offense, buoyed by their best hitter’s recent surge, could provide a surprise. As both teams look to solidify their places in the standings, this matchup is one to watch.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  With 6 bats who share the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Zack Wheeler figures to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Edmundo Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Edmundo Sosa’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 86.2-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 78.4-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, Otto Kemp).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Houston Astros Insights

• Colton Gordon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Colton Gordon’s 2053-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 7th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Isaac Paredes is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#1-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Houston’s 88.6-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in MLB: #27 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 78 games (+12.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-200)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 77 games (+13.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Jake Meyers has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 50% ROI)