San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
(+100/-120)+115
The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the San Diego Padres at Chase Field on August 5, 2025, in a crucial National League West matchup. The Diamondbacks are currently 54-59, struggling to find consistency this season, while the Padres sit at 62-51, showcasing a stronger performance. In their last encounter, the Diamondbacks secured a solid 6-2 victory, marking a notable moment for a team looking to turn their season around.
Ryne Nelson is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks. He has been a reliable option, boasting a 6-3 record and a commendable 3.20 ERA this season. However, his 4.04 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate and could face challenges ahead. In his last start on July 30, Nelson pitched effectively, allowing just one earned run over five innings with eight strikeouts. He projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings today, allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs.
On the other side, Yu Darvish will start for the Padres. His 1-3 record and alarming 6.46 ERA indicate struggles this season, although his 4.56 xFIP hints at potential for improvement. Darvish’s last outing on July 30 was impressive, as he pitched seven innings without allowing any earned runs. He projects to pitch 5.0 innings today, with an average of 2.6 earned runs allowed.
Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 4th in MLB, indicating a powerful lineup capable of generating runs, while the Padres sit at 22nd, reflecting their offensive challenges. With the Diamondbacks’ strong offensive capabilities and home-field advantage, they have a chance to capitalize on the Padres’ pitching struggles. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, suggesting expectations for a competitive matchup.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Yu Darvish – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)Yu Darvish has averaged 71.7 adjusted pitches per start this year, checking in at the 4th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)Ryan O’Hearn has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Ryne Nelson’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (65.3 vs. 56% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Corbin Carroll’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 91.7-mph now compared to just 89.2-mph then.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .313, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .329 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+10.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 73 games (+15.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 32% ROI)