Match Preview: Padres vs Cubs Game Forecast and Analysis - Tuesday, September 30, 2025

+110O/U: 6.5
(-110/-110)-130

San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
In his last game started, Nick Pivetta turned in a great performance and allowed 0 ER.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Jake Cronenworth has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.4-mph mark.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Ryan O’Hearn has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Matthew Boyd is projected to throw 76 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of all pitchers today.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Typically, batters like Kyle Tucker who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Nick Pivetta.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-130)
The Chicago Cubs projected offense projects as the best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+18.20 Units / 17% ROI)
Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 144 games (+12.45 Units / 8% ROI)
Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 26% ROI)

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