Match Preview: Orioles vs D-Backs Game Forecast – Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Baltimore Orioles on April 9, 2025, both teams find themselves at an early-season crossroads with matching records of 5-6. Despite their below-average starts, the Diamondbacks have been fielding one of the better offenses, ranking 9th in MLB. Their powerful lineup, combined with a solid overall batting average ranking of 10th, suggests that they have the potential to break out at any moment.

In their last meeting, the Diamondbacks fell short in a competitive game, pushing them to rethink their approach against the Orioles. Today, they will rely on right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, who has had an average start to the season with a 1-1 record and a 5.25 ERA. However, his peripheral metrics indicate he could improve, as his 3.62 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky. Pfaadt projects to pitch about 5.4 innings today, allowing around 2.9 earned runs while striking out 5.5 batters.

On the other side, the Orioles will send Dean Kremer to the mound, also holding a 1-1 record but struggling with a troubling 6.52 ERA. Despite his low strikeout rate of 15.6%, the projections show that he could face challenges against the Diamondbacks’ disciplined approach at the plate, as they possess the 2nd highest walk rate in MLB. Kremer’s high walk projection of 1.9 today might create additional problems for him.

As this game unfolds, betting markets suggest a close matchup, with the Diamondbacks sitting at -120. With both offenses ranked in the top 10 for batting average, expect a competitive game that could exceed the projected total of 9.0 runs. With their strong offensive performance and Pfaadt’s potential for improvement, Arizona looks poised to capitalize and turn their season around.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Dean Kremer figures to be at an advantage matching up with 7 batters in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  From last season to this one, Tyler O’Neill’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 97.9 mph to 94.9 mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles projected lineup grades out as the 4th-best of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the best out of every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Typically, bats like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Dean Kremer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Arizona’s 89.2-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the best in baseball: #7 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 76 of their last 122 games (+29.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 126 games (+15.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-170)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 56% ROI)