Match Preview: Mets vs Braves Game Forecast – Wednesday, September 25, 2024

New York Mets

@

Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets gear up for the second game of their series on September 25, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League East showdown. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Mets holding a slight edge in the standings at 87-70 compared to the Braves’ 86-71. This matchup could be pivotal in the race for divisional supremacy.

The Braves will send elite left-hander Chris Sale to the mound, who has been nothing short of spectacular this season. Ranked as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB, Sale boasts an impressive 18-3 record and a stellar 2.38 ERA. His ability to strike out batters and limit earned runs will be crucial against a potent Mets offense, which ranks 8th best in MLB. However, Sale’s projection to allow 5.0 hits and 1.3 walks on average today could pose a challenge.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with David Peterson. While Peterson has had a solid season with a 9-3 record and a 3.08 ERA, his xFIP of 4.17 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate. The Braves’ powerful offense, ranked 4th in home runs, will look to exploit this and put pressure on the Mets’ 22nd-ranked bullpen.

Yesterday’s series opener saw the Braves take the win, adding momentum to their cause. Michael Harris II has been a standout for Atlanta recently, posting a .517 batting average and a 1.568 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Francisco Alvarez has been the bright spot for the Mets, with a 1.197 OPS in his last five games.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Braves are favored with a 61% win probability. With their strong offensive capabilities and Chris Sale on the mound, Atlanta looks poised to continue their push in the division race.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Among all starters, David Peterson’s fastball spin rate of 2142 rpm grades out in the 23rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.317) suggests that Mark Vientos has had positive variance on his side this year with his .356 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to league average, Chris Sale has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 7.4 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Michael Harris II is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.2% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 131 games (+28.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+160)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 87 games (+14.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.55 Units / 34% ROI)