Match Preview: Mets vs Braves Game Forecast – Wednesday, September 25, 2024

New York Mets

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets at Truist Park on September 30, 2024, the second game of today’s doubleheader promises an intriguing face-off in the National League East. The Braves, leading the division, aim to solidify their postseason positioning, while the Mets, still clawing for a Wild Card spot, are eager to defy the odds. In the series opener earlier today, the Braves managed to secure a win, adding pressure on the Mets to bounce back.

The starting pitchers for Game 2 reflect a tale of contrasts. The Braves will send Grant Holmes, the 137th-ranked starting pitcher, to the mound. With a respectable 3.88 ERA this season, Holmes has proven effective, albeit with less predictability. Meanwhile, the Mets counter with Joey Lucchesi, whose 10.38 ERA paints a challenging picture. However, Lucchesi’s 6.76 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, hinting at potential upside that the Mets hope emerges tonight.

Offensively, the Braves hold the upper hand in power, ranking 4th in home runs, bolstered by Marcell Ozuna’s strong season. The Mets aren’t far behind, with Francisco Lindor leading a lineup that ranks 6th in homers. More than that, Lindor has been red-hot recently, boasting a 1.127 OPS over the past week. The batting prowess of both teams ensures the potential for fireworks, especially given the suspect nature of the projected starting pitchers’ outputs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, positions the Braves as favorites with a projected 64% chance to win, slightly below their betting market odds. Intriguingly, it suggests value in backing the underdog Mets, with their win probability assessed 9% higher than the betting lines imply. The Braves’ strong bullpen, ranked 6th, and contrasting with the Mets’ 23rd-ranked bullpen, could be decisive late in the game. For those looking to wager, the over-under set at 8.5 may see some action given these offensive matchups and pitching woes. As the Braves and Mets continue their divisional showdown, expect an entertaining evening with playoff implications front and center.

New York Mets Insights

• Joey Lucchesi – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Joey Lucchesi to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under Hits
  Jose Iglesias is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under Total Bases
  In today’s game, Harrison Bader is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.2% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  Grant Holmes will have the handedness advantage against 7 opposing hitters today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under Total Bases
  Matt Olson is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-305)
  The Atlanta Braves projected lineup profiles as the strongest of the day in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-130/+110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 89 of their last 140 games (+37.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+255)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 95 games (+18.55 Units / 14% ROI)