Match Preview: Marlins vs Dodgers Game Forecast and Analysis – Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Miami Marlins

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

On April 29, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Miami Marlins in the second game of their series at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers have established themselves as a strong contender this season, boasting a 19-10 record and an impressive 5th best offense in MLB. Meanwhile, the Marlins are struggling at 12-16, featuring an offense ranked 15th, which has not been enough to keep them competitive. In their last meeting, the Dodgers edged out the Marlins in a thrilling 7-6 contest.

Dodgers’ pitcher Matt Sauer will take the mound for the first time this season, having appeared only once in relief, which raises some questions about his readiness for a starting role. His ERA of 5.40 and the fact he projects to allow an average of 5.2 hits today suggest he may face challenges against the powerful Dodgers lineup. On the other side, Sandy Alcantara, projected to start for the Marlins, has had a rough go with a 6.56 ERA this season but boasts an impressive xFIP of 4.21, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky.

Alcantara’s high groundball rate (59%) could provide a slight edge against a Dodgers offense that leads MLB with 46 home runs. However, given this matchup, the Dodgers’ offensive depth and their strong projection of 4.85 runs suggest a favorable outcome for them. Combined with the Marlins’ 29th ranked bullpen and the Dodgers’ elite bullpen ranked 5th, it seems likely that Los Angeles may well capitalize on their chances to secure another victory today.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Sandy Alcantara is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.4% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #5 HR venue in MLB — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  From last season to this one, Xavier Edwards’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 87.1 mph to 81.5 mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  With 9 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Jacob Dreyer faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme groundball batters like Max Muncy are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Sandy Alcantara.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-205)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+3.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.90 Units / 72% ROI)
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-185)
  Max Muncy has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.95 Units / 36% ROI)