Match Preview: Guardians vs Cubs Game Forecast and Analysis – Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

@

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the Cleveland Guardians at Wrigley Field for the second game of their interleague series on July 2, 2025. The Cubs are riding high after a victory on July 1, where they secured a 5-2 win, while the Guardians fell to the same score in their last game. Currently, the Cubs sit at 1st in the National League Central with a solid 50-35 record, showcasing a strong season, whereas the Guardians are struggling in 4th place in the American League Central at 40-43.

In this matchup, the Cubs will send left-handed pitcher Shota Imanaga to the mound, who has demonstrated his skills with a 4-2 record and an impressive 2.54 ERA across 9 starts this season. Although his 4.84 xFIP suggests a bit of luck, his last start on June 26 saw him toss 5 innings of shutout baseball, allowing just 1 hit. Facing him will be Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee, a right-hander with a 4-8 record and a 3.90 ERA in 16 games. Despite Bibee’s respectable performance, his 4.43 FIP indicates he might have benefitted from favorable circumstances.

From an offensive standpoint, the Cubs boast the 4th best attack in MLB, ranking 3rd in batting average and home runs, which should be a challenge for a Guardians team ranked 26th in overall offense and 29th in batting average. The projections indicate that the Cubs are expected to score around 4.71 runs, while the Guardians are projected at a modest 3.79 runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Tanner Bibee’s 2245-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a big 116-rpm decline from last season’s 2361-rpm figure.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Carlos Santana has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph dropping to 70.4-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  Shota Imanaga is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #22 HR venue in MLB in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Typically, batters like Kyle Tucker who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tanner Bibee.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 35 games at home (+7.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games (+11.75 Units / 40% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+370/-570)
  Kyle Tucker has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 75% ROI)