Match Preview: Dodgers vs Reds Game Forecast and Analysis – Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds host the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 29, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, currently 56-51, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Dodgers sit at 62-45, boasting a great record. In their last encounter, the Dodgers triumphed over the Reds, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Cincinnati’s Nick Lodolo is projected to take the mound, bringing a solid 3.08 ERA into the game. However, advanced metrics indicate he may have been a bit fortunate this season, as his xFIP of 3.80 suggests a potential regression. Lodolo has started 21 games this year with an 8-6 record and projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, but he may struggle with earned runs and hits, allowing an average of 3.3 earned runs and 5.9 hits per outing. His low walk rate could work to his advantage against a Dodgers offense known for drawing walks.

On the other side, Tyler Glasnow, ranked 18th among MLB starting pitchers, has had an impressive season with a 2.75 ERA and a 1-1 record over 8 starts. He projects to pitch slightly longer than Lodolo, averaging 5.5 innings, but his own projections indicate he might allow 2.7 earned runs and 4.9 hits. Glasnow’s ability to strike out batters, averaging 7.0 per start, will be crucial against a Reds lineup that ranks 14th in offensive output.

The Dodgers’ offense, ranked 2nd in the league, is a significant factor in this matchup, especially against a Reds bullpen that is merely average at 14th. Betting odds favor the Dodgers, but the Reds could surprise, especially if Lodolo can harness his control and limit walks against a patient lineup. With a game total set at 9.0 runs, expect a competitive showdown in Cincinnati.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Tyler Glasnow has relied on his sinker 8.9% more often this year (17.6%) than he did last season (8.7%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  As it relates to his batting average skill, Shohei Ohtani is projected as the 9th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Freddie Freeman has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Nick Lodolo’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this year (93 mph) below where it was last year (94.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Jake Fraley is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 107 games (+18.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.20 Units / 30% ROI)
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Mookie Betts has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.40 Units / 23% ROI)