Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)+130
The San Diego Padres will host the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 11, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting National League West showdown. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Dodgers currently sitting at 40-28 and the Padres at 38-28. The previous game in this series saw the Padres dominate with an 11-1 victory, leaving the Dodgers looking to bounce back after a tough loss.
On the mound, the Padres are projected to start Randy Vasquez, who has been a mixed bag this season. Despite a decent ERA of 3.69, his xFIP of 5.68 indicates he might be due for some regression. Vasquez’s high walk rate (12.3 BB%) and propensity to allow fly balls (38 FB%) could play into the hands of the Dodgers, who boast a powerful lineup with 103 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in the league.
Ben Casparius is expected to take the hill for the Dodgers, and while he projects to pitch only 2.0 innings, his numbers indicate he could be effective in that time. The projections suggest he will limit earned runs and walks, which could help keep the game competitive early on.
Offensively, the Dodgers rank 2nd in MLB, with their best hitter posting a stellar 1.011 OPS. In contrast, the Padres’ offense sits at 19th, struggling particularly with power as they rank 25th in home runs. However, the Padres’ bullpen has been impressive, ranked 3rd in the league, which could be crucial if Vasquez encounters difficulties.
With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, the expectations for a high-scoring affair are palpable, creating an intriguing betting landscape. The Padres enter as underdogs at +125, but with the momentum from their recent win, they might just pull off another surprise against their rivals.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Justin Wrobleski’s high utilization rate of his fastball (58.3% since the start of last season) is likely weakening his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Typically, hitters like Max Muncy who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Randy Vasquez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Mookie Betts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)Randy Vasquez’s fastball velocity has dropped 2 mph this year (92.3 mph) below where it was last year (94.3 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 19.4% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+135/-170)Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.10 Units / 57% ROI)