Match Preview: D-Backs vs Padres Game Forecast – Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

San Diego Padres

On July 8, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park for the second game of their series. The Padres currently sit at 48-42, enjoying an above-average season, while the Diamondbacks are 45-46, marking an average campaign. This matchup holds significance as both teams look to gain traction in the competitive National League West.

In their previous encounter, the Padres emerged victorious, showcasing their strong bullpen, which ranks 5th in MLB, a notable contrast to the Diamondbacks’ struggling bullpen, ranked 29th. The Padres will send Nick Pivetta to the mound, who has been impressive this season with a 9-2 record and a solid 3.25 ERA. However, projections suggest he may have benefited from some good fortune, as his expected ERA sits higher at 3.84. Pivetta’s high flyball rate (42% FB) could be a concern against the Diamondbacks, who have demonstrated significant power this season, ranking 4th in MLB with 133 home runs.

Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona, boasting a 7-4 record and a 3.55 ERA. While Kelly has been reliable, he is projected to allow 2.6 earned runs and 5.4 hits today, which could play into the Padres’ hands. The Diamondbacks’ offense, while potent, may face challenges against Pivetta’s low walk rate, potentially neutralizing one of their strengths.

With the Padres projected to score an average of 4.21 runs against the Diamondbacks’ 3.79, this game promises to be closely contested. Bettors should keep an eye on the Padres’ ability to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the Diamondbacks’ recent struggles against solid pitching.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Merrill Kelly has gone to his cut-fastball 5.5% less often this year (19.7%) than he did last season (25.2%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Typically, bats like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Ketel Marte pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  In his last start, Nick Pivetta performed well and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  In the last week, Xander Bogaerts’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The San Diego Padres (18 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone group of hitters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.40 Units / 72% ROI)