Atlanta Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-110/-110)+115
On April 25, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field for the first game of their series. The Diamondbacks currently hold a record of 14-11, showcasing a solid start to the season, while the Braves sit at 10-14, struggling to find their footing. In their last game, the Braves faced a tough outing, and their recent performances have not been encouraging, making them a team to watch closely.
Arizona is projected to start Zac Gallen, a right-handed pitcher who ranks as the 46th best starter in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Despite his potential, Gallen has had a rocky season with a 1-3 record and an ERA of 5.60, indicating he has faced some misfortune. However, his xFIP of 4.45 suggests he could turn things around, as it points to better performance ahead.
On the other side, the Braves will counter with Chris Sale, a left-handed pitcher ranked 25th. Sale has also struggled, holding a 0-2 record and a 6.17 ERA, but his xFIP of 3.30 indicates he might be due for a better outing as well. Both pitchers project to pitch around 5.7 to 5.8 innings, with Sale allowing slightly fewer earned runs on average, which could give the Braves an edge.
Offensively, the Diamondbacks boast the 3rd best lineup in MLB this season, highlighted by their ability to hit home runs, ranking 5th in that category. In contrast, the Braves’ offense ranks 15th overall, showing signs of inconsistency. With the Diamondbacks projected to score an average of 4.15 runs against the Braves’ 4.35, this matchup could be closer than it appears, especially given the Diamondbacks’ strong home advantage. As betting markets indicate a close contest, this game promises to be a pivotal moment for both teams as they look to secure a win and build momentum.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Chris Sale – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)Chris Sale has been given more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 7.0 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Ozzie Albies is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best of all teams today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-135)The Atlanta Braves projected offense grades out as the 5th-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Zac Gallen’s curveball percentage has fallen by 8.2% from last year to this one (27.7% to 19.5%) .Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)Gabriel Moreno has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last year has fallen to 0% this year.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Arizona Diamondbacks hitters as a unit have been one of the best in the league this year (3rd-) when it comes to their 90.6-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-135)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1800)Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+8.40 Units / 105% ROI)