Match Preview: Braves vs D-Backs Game Forecast – Friday, April 25, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Atlanta Braves on April 25, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. The Diamondbacks sit comfortably above .500 with a record of 14-11, showcasing a strong season thus far. In contrast, the Braves are struggling with a 10-14 record, underscoring their disappointing start. Despite the Braves securing a win in their last outing against the Philadelphia Phillies on April 24, the Diamondbacks are seeking to bounce back after a loss to the San Diego Padres by a score of 7-4.

On the mound, the Diamondbacks are projected to start Zac Gallen, who holds a Power Rankings position as the 46th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. Although Gallen’s current ERA is a concerning 5.60, his xFIP of 4.43 suggests he may be due for a turnaround and could potentially improve his performance moving forward. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings and allow around 2.8 earned runs today.

For the Braves, veteran Chris Sale takes the hill, ranked as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB. Sale has struggled as well, with a 6.17 ERA, but his 3.29 xFIP indicates he too could see better days ahead. Sale’s projections are slightly more favorable, allowing 2.6 earned runs in 5.7 innings pitched on average.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 3rd in MLB, demonstrating their talent at the plate, while the Braves sit in the middle of the pack at 15th. Interestingly, the Diamondbacks’ ability to draw walks may be tested against Sale’s exceptional control. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets consider this matchup close, but the Diamondbacks, with their stronger offense, may hold the edge in this contest.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Chris Sale has been given more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 7.0 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Ozzie Albies is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-130)
  The Atlanta Braves projected offense grades out as the 5th-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Zac Gallen’s curveball percentage has fallen by 8.2% from last year to this one (27.7% to 19.5%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Gabriel Moreno has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last year has fallen to 0% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Arizona Diamondbacks hitters as a unit have been one of the best in the league this year (3rd-) when it comes to their 90.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.40 Units / 37% ROI)
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.05 Units / 25% ROI)