Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
(-110/-110)-135
As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays on April 10, 2025, at Fenway Park, both teams are looking to gain ground in the competitive American League East. The Red Sox currently sit at 6-7, struggling to find their rhythm this season, while the Blue Jays are enjoying a strong 8-5 start, showcasing a solid offensive and pitching performance. In their last matchup, the Red Sox fell 2-1 to the Blue Jays, and they’ll be eager to turn the tide in this fourth game of the series.
Walker Buehler is projected to start for Boston, coming off a rough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in just 5 innings. With an ERA of 8.68 this year, Buehler has struggled significantly, though projections suggest he may have been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Facing him is Chris Bassitt, who is having an exceptional season with a 0.71 ERA and coming off a masterful performance where he threw 7 innings without allowing any earned runs. Bassitt’s ability to strike out batters could pose a challenge for a Red Sox offense that leads the league in strikeouts.
The Red Sox offense ranks 9th overall, bolstered by a strong batting average, but they rank only 19th in home runs, indicating a lack of power. Conversely, the Blue Jays’ offense has been average in most categories, but they rank a dismal 29th in home runs, which may not bode well against Buehler’s groundball tendencies.
With the game total set at 8.0 runs, the betting markets indicate a close contest, favoring the Red Sox with a moneyline of -135. Given the Red Sox’s offensive capabilities and Bassitt’s potential regression, this matchup promises to be intriguing as Boston seeks to capitalize on their home-field advantage.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Chris Bassitt (42.6% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in Boston’s projected offense.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)George Springer has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.2-mph average to last year’s 87.4-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The 7.3% Barrel% of the Toronto Blue Jays grades them out as the #24 squad in the majors since the start of last season by this metric.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Walker Buehler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Walker Buehler’s curveball percentage has fallen by 9.4% from last season to this one (19.2% to 9.8%) .Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Typically, hitters like Trevor Story who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Chris Bassitt.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Jarren Duran has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-185)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Alan Roden – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)Alan Roden has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.25 Units / 58% ROI)