Match Preview: Athletics vs Blue Jays Game Forecast – Saturday, May 31, 2025

Athletics

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on May 31, 2025, both teams have contrasting performances this season. The Blue Jays currently sit at 29-28, having had an average year, while the Athletics struggle at 23-35, indicating a troubling campaign. The matchup at Rogers Centre marks the third game in the series, with Toronto coming off an impressive 11-7 victory against Oakland the previous day.

The Blue Jays are projected to start Braydon Fisher, a right-handed pitcher who has yet to start a game this season but has maintained an unblemished 0.00 ERA over 7 appearances out of the bullpen. However, advanced metrics suggest Fisher may be due for regression, as his 0.82 xFIP indicates some luck in his early performances. On the other side, Oakland will counter with Gunnar Hoglund, also a right-hander, who has a 5.13 ERA. Hoglund’s statistics paint a concerning picture, but his 4.27 xFIP suggests he may perform better than his ERA indicates.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 18th in MLB, struggling particularly with power, as they sit 26th in home runs. Conversely, the Athletics boast a respectable offense, ranking 10th overall and 6th in batting average. Despite this, Oakland’s hitting has not translated into a strong position in the standings.

Given the Blue Jays’ superior bullpen, ranked 5th in the league, and Fisher’s favorable matchup against a low-strikeout Athletics lineup, Toronto appears poised to capitalize on this opportunity. With the current game total set at a high 9.0 runs, this contest could be another high-scoring affair. Expect the Blue Jays to leverage their home-field advantage and recent momentum to secure the win.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Gunnar Hoglund is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #2 HR venue in MLB today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  This season, Miguel Andujar has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 86.7 mph compared to last year’s 84.1 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Athletics bats collectively have been one of the best in the majors this year (9th-) in regard to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Braydon Fisher – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Braydon Fisher will have the handedness advantage over 7 opposing bats in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ali Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+175/-230)
  Hitters such as Ali Sanchez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Gunnar Hoglund who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+175/-230)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Lawrence Butler has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 44% ROI)