Match Preview: Astros vs Rangers Game Forecast – Tuesday, August 6, 2024

Houston Astros

@

Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros are set to face off for the second consecutive day at Globe Life Field, following the Rangers’ narrow 4-3 victory over their rivals on August 5, 2024. This matchup signifies an important American League West rivalry, as both teams are looking to regain momentum in the latter part of the season. The Rangers currently sit at 54-59, struggling with a below-average season, while the Astros, at 57-55, are experiencing an average year.

On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Tyler Mahle, who is ranked 71st among all starting pitchers, suggesting he is above average despite allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs per outing. Contrastingly, the Astros will counter with Framber Valdez, an elite pitcher ranked 14th overall, boasting a solid 3.56 ERA and a 10-5 record this season.

The Rangers have been powered by Marcus Semien, their best hitter with 72 runs and 16 home runs this season, while their offense ranks 23rd in the league. In contrast, the Astros have Yordan Alvarez leading the way with a .298 batting average and 20 home runs, contributing to the Astros’ overall ranking of 11th in offensive production.

Betting trends indicate the Rangers’ current moneyline is set at +115, providing an implied win probability of 45%. However, projections suggest the Rangers have a better chance than the betting markets indicate, with expectations of scoring around 4.19 runs—making them a potential value bet. This game promises to be competitive, continuing the intensity of this heated division rivalry.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Framber Valdez is an extreme groundball pitcher (58.4% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Globe Life Field — the #5 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  In the past week, Jose Altuve’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Yordan Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-200/+155)
  With 7 batters who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Tyler Mahle should benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Corey Seager – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Corey Seager has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.9-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 92.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games at home (+9.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 98 games (+14.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Wyatt Langford has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+14.00 Units / 65% ROI)