Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
(-110/-110)+110
On September 7, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Houston Astros at Globe Life Field for the third game of their series. The Rangers are currently sitting at 73-70, while the Astros hold a better record at 78-65, indicating a significant gap in performance this season. The Rangers’ offense has struggled, ranking 26th in MLB, which is concerning as they face off against a strong Astros team that ranks 13th.
In their last game, the Rangers were shut out by the Astros with a score of 11-0, a tough loss that highlights their recent struggles. The Rangers’ projected starter, Patrick Corbin, has had a rough season, ranking 284th among starting pitchers in MLB and coming off a game where he allowed 5 earned runs over 6 innings. His projections today suggest he might struggle again, with an average of 3.1 earned runs and 5.9 hits allowed.
On the other hand, the Astros will send Luis Garcia to the mound, who pitched effectively in his last outing, allowing only 3 earned runs over 6 innings. While Garcia’s 4.50 ERA is average, his underlying metrics suggest he could outperform that number going forward. He projects to allow 2.5 earned runs today, which is favorable against a struggling Rangers lineup.
Betting markets have set the Rangers’ moneyline at +105, reflecting their potential to keep the game close. The Astros, at -130, are favored but with a projected total of 8.5 runs for the game, indicating a competitive matchup. With both teams showing contrasting trends, particularly in their recent performances, this game presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors.
Houston Astros Insights
- Christian Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)In the last week, Christian Walker’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.7% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Houston’s 88.3-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the game: #29 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Texas Rangers – Moneyline (+110)Among every team in action today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Texas Rangers.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Cody Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Cody Freeman’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 84.9-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 81.8-mph in the past two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games at home (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 74 of their last 127 games (+14.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-170/+130)Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+10.05 Units / 66% ROI)