Marlins vs Twins Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 9/25/24

Miami Marlins

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins are set to host the Miami Marlins at Target Field on September 25, 2024, in an interleague matchup. The Twins are having an above-average season, sitting at 81-76 and showing signs of playoff contention. In contrast, the Marlins have struggled significantly, with a 58-99 record marking a tough season.

The Twins are favored in this matchup, with the projections giving them a 56% chance of victory, while the betting market implies a 63% win probability. Meanwhile, the Marlins are perceived as underdogs, carrying a 37% implied probability but with projections suggesting their chances are slightly better at 44%. This discrepancy hints at potential value for those willing to bet on Miami.

Taking the mound for the Twins is Simeon Woods Richard, a right-handed pitcher ranked 172nd among MLB starters. His 4.00 ERA, though respectable, is higher than his peripheral indicators suggest, pointing to potential regression. Despite a mediocre 5-5 record, his 4.54 xFIP indicates some underlying luck that may not hold. On the flip side, Edward Cabrera will start for the Marlins. Ranked 90th among starters, Cabrera’s 5.12 ERA belies his potential, as his 3.99 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky. This could be a chance for Cabrera to shine against a Twins offense that ranks 11th in overall talent and 10th in batting average.

Offensively, the Twins have been led by Matt Wallner over the past week, boasting a .350 batting average and a .858 OPS across six games. For the Marlins, Derek Hill has been a standout performer with a .400 average and a 1.100 OPS over five games. Given the Marlins’ struggles with power and their bullpen ranking 29th, the Twins hold a comprehensive edge, but Miami’s potential value as an underdog could make for an intriguing matchup.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Edward Cabrera’s fastball velocity of 95.7 mph ranks in the 95th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (15.7) provides evidence that Derek Hill has had positive variance on his side this year with his 25.8 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Simeon Woods Richardson has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  In the past two weeks, Carlos Santana’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  In today’s game, Byron Buxton is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.7% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games at home (+10.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 75 away games (+16.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.85 Units / 42% ROI)