Marlins vs Twins Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 9/25/24

Miami Marlins

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Minnesota Twins

As the MLB season winds down, the Minnesota Twins, holding an above-average record of 81-76, are set to host the struggling Miami Marlins, who sit at 58-99, on September 25, 2024, at Target Field. While the Twins have been enjoying a solid season, the Marlins have had their fair share of struggles, making this interleague matchup an intriguing one for bettors.

The Twins are coming off a win in the series opener, and they’ll look to continue their dominance against the Marlins. Minnesota is a big betting favorite with a moneyline of -180, suggesting a 62% implied win probability. Meanwhile, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Twins a slightly lower 58% chance of victory, highlighting potential value on the Marlins if you’re looking to back the underdog.

On the mound, Minnesota will start Simeon Woods Richard, who has been somewhat lucky this season with a 4.00 ERA compared to a less favorable 4.55 xFIP. His projections for the game are mixed, with an expected 4.9 innings pitched and 4.2 strikeouts, which are below average. The Marlins counter with Edward Cabrera, who has experienced some bad luck this season, sporting a 5.12 ERA but a more promising 3.99 xFIP. Cabrera projects to improve, with an expected 4.7 innings and 5.5 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Twins rank 11th in overall performance, with a 10th-ranked batting average, while the Marlins languish at 29th. This disparity in offensive firepower could be a decisive factor, especially with Minnesota’s Matt Wallner hitting .350 over the last week. Despite the Marlins’ Derek Hill posting a .400 average in his last five games, the Twins’ superior offense and home-field advantage make them the team to beat. However, with the Marlins projected to perform better than the betting market suggests, this game could provide a compelling opportunity for those willing to wager on the underdog.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Edward Cabrera’s fastball velocity of 95.7 mph ranks in the 95th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (20.6) suggests that Kyle Stowers has been unlucky this year with his 9.0 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Simeon Woods Richardson has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Carlos Santana is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  In today’s game, Byron Buxton is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.7% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games at home (+10.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 75 away games (+16.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 40% ROI)