Marlins vs Rockies Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 8/27/24

Miami Marlins

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face off against the Miami Marlins on August 27, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling at the bottom of the standings. The Rockies hold a record of 49-83, while the Marlins sit slightly behind at 47-84. These teams are in dire need of a turnaround, but neither has shown the ability to string together consistent performances this season.

In their last meeting on August 26, the Rockies managed a narrow victory over the Marlins, winning 3-2. This tight contest underscores the competitive nature of the matchup, even if both teams are languishing in the standings. The Rockies will send Cal Quantrill to the mound, who has had an average season with an ERA of 4.56 and a Win/Loss record of 8-9. While Quantrill ranks as the 204th best starting pitcher in MLB, his recent outing was promising, allowing just 2 earned runs over 5 innings.

On the other hand, the Marlins will counter with Roddery Munoz, who has struggled significantly, evidenced by his 5.98 ERA and a 2-7 record. Munoz’s last start was abbreviated, yielding 3 earned runs in just 3 innings. His low strikeout rate (19.1 K%) will be challenged against a Rockies offense that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts.

Interestingly, the projections favor the Rockies in this matchup, with their implied team total sitting at a robust 6.22 runs. The leading MLB projection system suggests that Colorado’s offense, while ranked 20th overall, has the potential to capitalize on Munoz’s inefficiencies. With Brenton Doyle leading the charge, having performed well recently, the Rockies might just find the spark they need to build on their last win.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Given the 0.84 disparity between Roddery Munoz’s 5.98 ERA and his 6.81 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year and ought to negatively regress the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Kyle Stowers has big-time power (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (30.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cal Quantrill doesn’t generate many whiffs (10th percentile K%) — great news for Stowers.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (-150)
  The Colorado Rockies infield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Charlie Blackmon may have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to record the most runs (6.54 on average) on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+7.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 58 away games (+16.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-135/+105)
  Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 37 games (+10.00 Units / 26% ROI)