Marlins vs Phillies Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – 9/25/2025

Miami Marlins

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Miami Marlins on September 25, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the National League East. The Phillies, currently 1st in the division with a record of 93-65, are enjoying a strong season, while the Marlins sit in 4th place at 77-81, having had an average year. Notably, the Phillies recently took the second game of this series, demonstrating their dominance at Citizens Bank Park.

Walker Buehler is projected to take the mound for Philadelphia, and while he has had a challenging season with a 5.13 ERA and a 9-7 record over 23 starts, he benefits from a potent Phillies offense that ranks 3rd in MLB. This unit has been firing on all cylinders, boasting a 2nd best team batting average and a solid 9th best in home runs. The projections suggest that Buehler may struggle, with an expected average of 4.6 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed today.

Janson Junk, on the other hand, will start for Miami. With a 4.27 ERA and a 6-3 record over 16 starts, he faces a tough challenge against a lineup that has been performing exceptionally well. Junk’s projections indicate he may pitch slightly longer than Buehler, averaging 4.9 innings, but he is also expected to allow around 3.0 earned runs, which is troubling considering the potency of the Phillies’ offense.

With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs, bettors may find the Phillies’ moneyline of -165 appealing, reflecting their strong implied team total of 4.99 runs. Given the matchups and the current form of both teams, the Phillies appear well-positioned to continue their winning ways in this pivotal series.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  In his previous outing, Janson Junk was rolling and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under Hits
  Eric Wagaman is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Miami Marlins have been the 6th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Walker Buehler to throw 77 pitches in this matchup (5th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Max Kepler’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 90.7-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 75.3-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 64 games at home (+15.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+140)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 52 away games (+20.65 Units / 38% ROI)