Marlins vs Phillies Insights and Game Breakdown – 9/24/2025

Miami Marlins

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face off against the Miami Marlins on September 24, 2025, the stakes are high for the home team, who currently boasts a strong record of 92-65. The Phillies are solidly in the playoff race, while the Marlins, with a record of 77-80, are merely playing for pride at this point in the season. In their last encounter, the Phillies fell to the Marlins by a narrow margin of 6-5, adding a sense of urgency to this matchup as they look to bounce back.

Jesus Luzardo, projected to start for the Phillies, has had a commendable season with a 14-7 record and a 4.08 ERA. Although his ERA is above average, his 3.33 xFIP suggests some misfortune, indicating he could perform better moving forward. Luzardo is known for his high strikeout rate, sitting at 28.0%, which could be pivotal against a Marlins offense that ranks 4th least in strikeouts this year. He is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs, which aligns with his overall performance this season.

On the other side, Ryan Weathers will take the mound for the Marlins. With a record of 2-1 and a stellar 3.21 ERA, Weathers has been effective, but his 4.09 xFIP raises concerns about sustainability. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs, which could be a challenge against a Phillies offense that ranks 3rd best in MLB and 2nd in batting average.

With the Phillies favored at a moneyline of -165, the projections suggest they should score around 4.46 runs, reflecting their offensive capabilities. Meanwhile, the Marlins are projected for a mere 3.54 runs, highlighting the uphill battle they face. As both teams vie for a crucial win, the Phillies will look to capitalize on their offensive strength to secure a much-needed victory.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Weathers – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Throwing 82.9 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Ryan Weathers falls in the 23rd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Javier Sanoja – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  As it relates to his batting average, Javier Sanoja has been unlucky this year. His .241 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .281.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Heriberto Hernandez, Connor Norby, Joey Wiemer).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Jesus Luzardo’s slider rate has increased by 9.8% from last season to this one (29.2% to 39%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Harrison Bader is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 10th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 67 games at home (+18.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+140)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 48 away games (+22.35 Units / 44% ROI)
• Weston Wilson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Weston Wilson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.20 Units / 35% ROI)