Marlins vs Brewers Betting Line and Odds – July 27, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewers face off on July 27, 2024, at American Family Field in the second game of their series. The Brewers, sitting comfortably with a 59-44 record, are having a solid season and are well-positioned for a playoff push. On the other hand, the Marlins, with a dismal 38-66 record, are enduring a tough year.

The Brewers are projected to start Aaron Civale, who has had a challenging season. Civale holds a 2-7 Win/Loss record with a 5.17 ERA, but his 4.25 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could improve. Civale’s high-flyball tendency might play to his advantage against a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in home runs this season. However, the Brewers’ bullpen, ranked 24th in the Power Rankings, could be a vulnerability.

Max Meyer gets the nod for the Marlins. Meyer has been impressive in his limited action, boasting a 2-0 record and a stellar 2.12 ERA. Yet, his 3.60 xFIP indicates he might regress. Meyer’s low walk rate could neutralize the Brewers’ patient approach at the plate, as Milwaukee ranks 3rd in walks. The Marlins’ bullpen, ranked 15th, provides a more stable option compared to the Brewers’.

Offensively, the Brewers hold the edge. They rank 8th in overall offense, 5th in batting average, and 2nd in stolen bases, showcasing a balanced attack. Jackson Chourio has been a standout recently, hitting .440 with a 1.080 OPS over the last week. Conversely, the Marlins’ offense has struggled, ranking 29th overall and 29th in home runs. Vidal Brujan has been a bright spot, hitting .500 with a 1.386 OPS over the past week.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Brewers have a 54% win probability, slightly lower than their implied odds. This suggests there might be value in betting on the Marlins, despite their underdog status. The projected game total stands at 8.0 runs, indicating an average scoring affair.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+145)
  The Miami Marlins outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Nick Gordon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Nick Gordon has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 77.3-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Bryan De La Cruz has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Aaron Civale will record an average of 1.3 singles in today’s game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Garrett Mitchell has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .320 figure is significantly inflated relative to his .277 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Garrett Mitchell, Jake Bauers, Blake Perkins).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 102 games (+8.05 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 76 games (+9.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Sal Frelick has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+8.70 Units / 24% ROI)