Marlins vs Braves Game Highlights – Thursday, August 1, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves will host the Miami Marlins at Truist Park on August 1, 2024, in the first game of a series that has implications for both teams as they navigate a challenging season. The Braves, currently with a record of 58-49, are enjoying an above-average campaign, while the Marlins sit at a disappointing 40-68, marking one of the league’s worst performances.

In their last game, the Braves secured a solid 6-2 victory against the Milwaukee Brewers, showcasing their offensive prowess. On the other hand, the Marlins also managed to win their last outing, defeating the Tampa Bay Rays 6-2, but this success has been rare for them. Both teams will look to build momentum as they face each other for the first time this season.

The Braves are projected to start Charlie Morton, who, despite being ranked as the 134th best starting pitcher in MLB, has a respectable ERA of 4.16. However, he struggled in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs over just 3 innings. Morton is a high-groundball pitcher facing a Marlins offense that has been underwhelming, ranking 29th in home runs with only 85 long balls this season. This matchup might favor Morton, as the Marlins lack the power to exploit his groundball tendencies.

Max Meyer gets the nod for Miami and has been an average pitcher with an impressive ERA of 3.00 across 4 starts. However, he has a concerning 3.82 xFIP, indicating he may not sustain this level of performance. The Braves’ offense ranks 14th overall but is particularly strong in power, ranking 10th in home runs.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, suggests the Braves are significant favorites, projecting them to score an impressive 5.18 runs, while the Marlins are expected to manage only 4.41 runs. With the Braves’ potent lineup and a superior bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB, they are well-positioned to capitalize on this matchup against a struggling Marlins squad.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Max Meyer – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Max Meyer is projected to throw 83 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of all pitchers on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Nick Fortes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Nick Fortes has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 79-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 7.2% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins ranks them as the #24 offense in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Charlie Morton’s high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (62.6% this year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Despite posting a .404 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcell Ozuna has been lucky given the .054 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .350.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Jarred Kelenic hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 94 games (+26.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 74 games (+10.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)
  Orlando Arcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+12.00 Units / 300% ROI)