Mariners vs Yankees Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Thursday, July 10, 2025

Seattle Mariners

@

New York Yankees

On July 10, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Seattle Mariners at Yankee Stadium for the third game of their series. The Yankees are currently 51-41, enjoying a solid season, while the Mariners sit at 48-44, having an above-average year. In their previous matchup, the Yankees emerged victorious with a 9-6 win, which adds a competitive edge to this encounter.

The Yankees are projected to start Marcus Stroman, who has struggled this season with a 7.45 ERA and a 1-1 record over five starts. Despite his high ground-ball rate of 52%, he may find it challenging against the Mariners’ powerful offense, which ranks 6th in MLB with 124 home runs. The projections suggest Stroman could allow 3.1 earned runs today, which would not bode well for New York’s chances.

Conversely, Bryan Woo will take the mound for Seattle. With an impressive 2.77 ERA and an 8-4 record in 17 starts, Woo has been a standout performer this year, ranking 17th among MLB starting pitchers. His projections indicate he may allow 2.8 earned runs, which is manageable against a high-powered Yankees lineup that ranks 1st in home runs and boasts the best offense in MLB.

While the Yankees’ offense has been dominant, their bullpen struggles, ranking 26th in MLB, could be a concern. Betting markets currently set the moneyline for both teams at -110, reflecting expectations of a closely contested game. With the Yankees’ strong offensive capabilities and the Mariners’ bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Bryan Woo has used his four-seam fastball 5.7% less often this season (43.3%) than he did last season (49%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Luke Raley has a ton of pop (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Marcus Stroman is a pitch-to-contact type (18th percentile K%) — great news for Raley.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Marcus Stroman’s 88.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.2-mph drop off from last year’s 90.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cody Bellinger can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In today’s game, Anthony Volpe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.5% rate (93rd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+10.42 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 away games (+7.90 Units / 61% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+7.60 Units / 28% ROI)