Mariners vs Tigers Matchup Preview and Score Prediction - 10/08/2025

-110O/U: 8.5
(-105/-115)-110

Bryce Miller – Over/Under 10.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Miller to throw 71 pitches in this game (5th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Victor Robles – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
As it relates to his batting average, Victor Robles has been lucky since the start of last season. His .289 BA has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .241.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Bryce Miller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Casey Mize – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
Casey Mize’s change-up percentage has spiked by 6.1% from last year to this one (18.1% to 24.2%) .
Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
Spencer Torkelson has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.8% rate last season to 13.4% this season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
The 9.5% Barrel% of the Detroit Tigers ranks them as the #7 group of hitters in the league this year by this metric.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-150)
The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 73 games at home (+13.78 Units / 16% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 48 away games (+12.45 Units / 23% ROI)
J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-5000)
J.P. Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+29.50 Units / 492% ROI)

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