Seattle Mariners
St. Louis Cardinals
(-120/+100)+115
As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on September 7, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of average seasons, with records of 71-70 and 72-70, respectively. This Interleague matchup marks the second game of the series, and both teams are looking to gain an edge as they approach the final stretch of the season.
In their last game, the Cardinals did not play, while the Mariners hope to bounce back after a disappointing performance. The Cardinals are projected to start Kyle Gibson, who ranks as the 152nd best starting pitcher in MLB, while the Mariners counter with Logan Gilbert, who boasts a much more impressive ranking at 18th. Gibson’s ERA of 4.39 is indicative of an average season, but his projected stats suggest a decline may be on the horizon, as he’s expected to allow 2.5 earned runs and 5.0 hits this game. In contrast, Gilbert’s ERA of 3.19 reflects his excellent form, and he’s projected to give up only 2.1 earned runs and 5.1 hits.
The Cardinals’ offense has an average ranking of 18th in MLB, but they struggle with power, sitting at 22nd in home runs. In contrast, the Mariners’ offense is ranked 25th and is at the bottom in batting average, which poses a significant challenge against a strong Cardinals bullpen ranked 8th.
With the Game Total set at a low 7.0 runs, this matchup could see limited scoring. Currently, the Cardinals’ moneyline is +105, suggesting a close contest, while the Mariners sit at -125. Given the disparities in pitching matchups, the Mariners may have an edge, but the Cardinals could capitalize on any mistakes from Gilbert. As always in baseball, every game matters, and this one could play a crucial role in shaping the remainder of the season for both teams.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)Generating 19 outs per game per started this year on average, Logan Gilbert ranks in the 99th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Jorge Polanco is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Kyle Gibson’s change-up utilization has fallen by 7.9% from last year to this one (17% to 9.1%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Paul Goldschmidt has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 101.3-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 91.5-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- St. Louis grades out as the #3 squad in the majors when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle band that tends to optimize base hits (44.4% rate this year).Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 62 away games (+14.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+120)Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 49 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)