Mariners vs Angels Picks and Betting Tips – September 1st, 2024

Seattle Mariners

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face the Seattle Mariners on September 1, 2024, at Angel Stadium, the stakes are high, especially after the Angels pulled off a narrow 5-4 victory against the Mariners the day before. The Angels, with a record of 56-80, have had a disappointing season, while the Mariners sit at 69-67, showcasing a somewhat average performance.

Caden Dana, projected to start for the Angels, has struggled this season, ranking as the 218th best starting pitcher in MLB. His average projections today indicate he may allow 2.9 earned runs while striking out only 5.3 batters. In contrast, the Mariners will counter with Bryce Miller, who has had a solid season with a 3.23 ERA and a 10-7 record. Miller’s last outing on August 26 was stellar, as he pitched 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 10 batters.

Offensively, both teams have had challenges this season, with the Angels ranking as the 27th best offense and the Mariners even lower at 28th. However, the Angels’ best hitter, Zach Neto, has shown some resilience, hitting 20 home runs this year. Mickey Moniak has been particularly hot over the last week, batting .471 with 4 home runs in just 5 games, making him a player to watch.

Interestingly, projections suggest the Angels might outperform their betting odds, with a projected win probability of 44%. This could indicate potential value in wagering on the Angels despite their struggles this season. Meanwhile, the Mariners are favored with a high implied team total of 5.14 runs, reflecting their offensive potential, but they must contend with an Angels squad that has shown flashes of resilience. As these two teams clash in this critical matchup, the outcome could hinge on the performances of the starting pitchers and the ability of each lineup to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Bryce Miller’s four-seamer percentage has decreased by 14.8% from last season to this one (58.5% to 43.7%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  In the past week’s worth of games, Josh Rojas’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Matt Thaiss – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Thaiss stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Kevin Pillar pulls many of his flyballs (36.7% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 91 games (+5.55 Units / 6% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 49 away games (+14.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)
  Zach Neto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.30 Units / 36% ROI)