Minnesota Twins
San Diego Padres
(+100/-120)-125
As the San Diego Padres get set to face the Minnesota Twins on August 21, 2024, both teams are enjoying strong campaigns. The Padres hold a record of 72-55 and are sitting comfortably in the playoff race, while the Twins are close behind at 70-56, solidly in contention for a Wild Card spot. This matchup is crucial, especially after the Padres edged the Twins 7-5 in a tense battle the previous day.
On the mound for the Padres, Matt Waldron is projected to start. Despite ranking as the 155th best starting pitcher in MLB, Waldron’s recent performance has left something to be desired, as he allowed 7 earned runs in his last outing. His ERA of 4.29 is considered average, but with projections indicating he will allow an alarming 5.1 hits today, he could be in for a rough outing against an impressive Twins lineup.
Simeon Woods Richard, starting for the Twins, has had a solid season, evidenced by his ERA of 3.77, which is above average. However, his xFIP of 4.37 suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune. With his ability to pitch only 4.9 innings on average and a high projected hit rate of 5.2, the Padres’ potent offense—ranking 1st in MLB batting average—may look to capitalize on any pitching mistakes early on.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the Padres are seen as slight favorites, with projections anticipating they will score approximately 4.74 runs in this contest. Meanwhile, the Twins are expected to match this with around 4.55 runs. With both teams showcasing strong offensive capabilities, this matchup promises to be another tightly contested game, especially given the implications for Wild Card positioning in the playoff race.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (+105)Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Minnesota Twins.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Trevor Larnach has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.4-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 92.2-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Carlos Santana pulls many of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Matt Waldron – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Matt Waldron has averaged 91.6 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 75th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Kyle Higashioka is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Minnesota (#3-worst of all teams today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.6% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-125)The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 28 games (+13.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 105 games (+9.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+550/-1000)Jurickson Profar has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 44 games (+21.30 Units / 48% ROI)