Live Updates for Cardinals vs Rockies – 9/25/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Colorado Rockies

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Colorado Rockies are set to clash at Coors Field on September 25, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Cardinals, with a record of 80-77, are having an average season and are still in the hunt for a playoff spot, while the Rockies, with a dismal 60-97 record, are simply playing for pride at this point in the season. In the first game of the series, the Cardinals showcased their resilience with a narrow victory over the Rockies and will look to extend their momentum in this series.

On the mound, the Rockies will send Austin Gomber to start. Gomber, a left-hander, has struggled throughout the season, boasting a 5-11 record with a 4.67 ERA, ranking as the 241st best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite the numbers suggesting he’s been somewhat fortunate, Gomber’s projected performance includes 5.0 innings pitched and 3.3 earned runs allowed. His projections suggest a tough outing against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 13th in team batting average but struggles with power, ranked 23rd in home runs.

The Cardinals counter with Erick Fedde, currently ranked 86th among MLB starters. Fedde has enjoyed a solid season with an 8-9 record and a stellar 3.38 ERA. However, his underlying 4.23 xFIP hints at potential regression. His projections for this game are average, with 5.2 innings pitched and 3.0 earned runs allowed, facing a Rockies offense that, while average with a 16th ranking in home runs, has been limited in their effectiveness overall.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cardinals a slight edge with a 52% win probability, while the betting markets slightly favor them with a -130 moneyline, implying a 54% chance. With the game total set high at 10.5 runs, expect fireworks in this high-altitude showdown.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  In his last GS, Erick Fedde turned in a great performance and gave up 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Brendan Donovan has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 5.4% seasonal rate to 11.4% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-130)
  The St. Louis Cardinals projected batting order profiles as the 5th-worst of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Austin Gomber is projected to throw 82 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least of all pitchers on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Ezequiel Tovar has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph dropping to 78.1-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies batters jointly place 10th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 8.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 60 games at home (+11.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.25 Units / 42% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (-110/-120)
  Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.00 Units / 29% ROI)