Live Stream for Reds vs Pirates Game – Saturday, August 24, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Cincinnati Reds on August 24, 2024, both teams find themselves in a battle of mediocrity, sitting just below .500. The Pirates enter this matchup with a record of 61-67, while the Reds are slightly ahead at 62-67. The stakes might not be high in terms of playoff contention, but both teams are eager to gain momentum after competing fiercely in their last game, where the Pirates edged out the Reds 6-5.

Jake Woodford is set to take the mound for the Pirates, and he has struggled significantly this season, holding an 0-5 record with a dismal ERA of 6.67. However, his xFIP of 5.02 suggests he could be due for a turnaround. On the other side, Julian Aguiar, despite being one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats, boasts a more respectable ERA of 4.50. Both pitchers project to pitch around 4.6 to 4.8 innings, and neither has shown the ability to dominate opposing lineups.

The Pirates’ offense has been lackluster, ranking 27th in MLB, while the Reds are slightly better at 16th. However, the projections indicate a potential advantage for the Pirates, who are expected to score an impressive 5.40 runs on average in this game. This contrasts sharply with their current moneyline of -110, reflecting the close nature of the matchup.

With Bryan Reynolds leading the Pirates and Elly De La Cruz representing the Reds, fans can expect a tightly contested game. The Pirates may take solace in the projections that favor them slightly, indicating they have the potential to outperform their betting odds.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Julian Aguiar – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Julian Aguiar has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -10.4 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Elly De La Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.9-mph to 95.1-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Given the 1.47 discrepancy between Jake Woodford’s 6.39 ERA and his 4.92 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the majors since the start of last season and ought to positively regress in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.2) provides evidence that Oneil Cruz has suffered from bad luck this year with his 22.9 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Joey Bart pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 43 games (+14.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 71 of their last 126 games (+8.60 Units / 5% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)
  Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+15.10 Units / 46% ROI)