Live Stream for Phillies vs Braves Game – 07/07/2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies are set to clash in the third game of their series on July 7, 2024, at Truist Park. Both teams are in the midst of competitive seasons, with the Phillies leading the National League East at 58-31 and the Braves trailing just slightly behind at 48-39.

In the second game of this series, the Braves came out on top with a 5-1 victory, backed by an effective pitching performance that kept the Phillies’ potent lineup in check. Notably, Reynaldo Lopez will take the mound for Atlanta again, following a season where he has been consistently above average, ranking as the #84 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lopez boasts a stellar 1.83 ERA, although his 3.80 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate.

Facing him is Michael Mercado for Philadelphia, who is one of the worst pitchers in the league based on the Power Rankings. He’s started just one game this season, though he performed admirably, allowing only one earned run over five innings. However, his 4.19 xFIP indicates he might struggle moving forward.

Offensively, the Phillies have a clear edge. They rank as the 5th best offense in MLB, boasting impressive stats across the board—3rd in team batting average, 7th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases. Alec Bohm has been the standout performer, with a .297 batting average and 70 RBIs. Meanwhile, Trea Turner has been on a heater recently, slashing .444 with four home runs and 11 RBIs over the last week.

The Braves, while strong, have been more middle-of-the-pack offensively. Their best hitter, Marcell Ozuna, sports a .298 batting average and 72 RBIs, solidifying his pivotal role in their lineup. Ozzie Albies has also been hot, hitting .417 with 10 hits over his last six games.

In terms of bullpens, the Phillies hold the advantage, ranked 2nd in MLB, whereas the Braves’ bullpen is solid but slightly less dominant at 7th. As betting lines stand, Atlanta is favored with a -160 moneyline, translating to an implied win probability of 60%. This matches the projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which also favor the Braves at a 60% win probability.

With a combined game total of 8.0 runs and the Braves projected to score more than the Phillies, today’s matchup promises to be an intriguing continuation of this fierce NL East rivalry.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Michael Mercado – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Michael Mercado will have a tough challenge going up against 6 batters in the projected lineup of the same handedness in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Brandon Marsh has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Reynaldo Lopez’s fastball spin rate has dropped 128 rpm this season (2061 rpm) below where it was last season (2189 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Marcell Ozuna has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.6-mph average to last season’s 96.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jarred Kelenic hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 81 games (+23.40 Units / 26% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 73 games (+21.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• David Dahl – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+185/-245)
  David Dahl has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 48% ROI)