Live Score for Red Sox vs Orioles – August 18th, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 18, 2024, both teams are looking to gain ground in the American League East. The Orioles currently boast a solid record of 72-52, while the Red Sox sit at 65-57, reflecting an above-average season. However, the Red Sox have recently gained momentum, having won their last matchup against the Orioles by a score of 5-1 just yesterday.

In this pivotal fourth game of the series, the Orioles are projected to start Albert Suarez, who has been inconsistent this season. Despite a respectable ERA of 3.39, advanced metrics suggest he may have been fortunate, as his xFIP is 4.62, indicating potential struggles ahead. Suarez’s low strikeout rate of 18.8% could prove problematic against a Red Sox lineup known for its ability to rack up strikeouts.

On the other side, Kutter Crawford is slated to take the mound for Boston. Crawford has had a mixed season with an ERA of 4.17, but his recent performance shows promise. In his last start, he pitched 5 innings, allowing 4 earned runs. However, he is a high-flyball pitcher, which could spell trouble against a Baltimore offense ranked 1st in MLB for home runs, with 157 this season.

Baltimore’s offense ranks 2nd overall in MLB, showcasing their power and ability to score runs. They are projected to score an impressive 5.21 runs today according to the projections, while Boston is also expected to have a strong showing with an average of 5.21 runs. With a current moneyline of -125 for the Orioles, betting markets suggest a close contest, and the expectations for high-scoring action make this matchup one to watch.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Kutter Crawford is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #24 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  In terms of his batting average, Connor Wong has had some very good luck this year. His .293 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .241.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• It may be sensible to expect worse results for the Boston Red Sox offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Albert Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Albert Suarez has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed hitters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The 9.5% Barrel% of the Baltimore Orioles ranks them as the #3 offense in the league this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 72 games (+13.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 79 games (+22.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+320/-470)
  Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 13 of his last 49 games (+10.40 Units / 21% ROI)