Live Score for Cubs vs Orioles – (July 10th, 2024

Chicago Cubs

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles (57-34) continue their series against the Chicago Cubs (43-49) after a surprising 9-2 loss yesterday. Despite the setback, the Orioles remain a dominant force this season, sitting comfortably with one of the best records in baseball. They will look to bounce back at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 10, 2024.

Corbin Burnes is set to take the mound for Baltimore. Burnes, who boasts a stellar 2.32 ERA and a 9-3 record, has been one of the top pitchers in the league, ranked 26th among approximately 350 starting pitchers. However, his 3.37 xFIP suggests some regression could be on the horizon. Burnes’ control has been exceptional, with a low 5.6% walk rate, and he will be facing a Cubs lineup known for its patience at the plate. This could neutralize one of their key strengths.

Opposing Burnes is Shota Imanaga, who has quietly put together a solid season for the Cubs with a 3.16 ERA and a 7-2 record. Ranked 75th among starters, Imanaga’s 43% flyball rate could pose a problem against the Orioles’ powerful offense, which ranks 1st in MLB in home runs. The high-flyball approach may turn dangerous against Baltimore’s sluggers, giving the home team a significant advantage.

Offensively, the Orioles are firing on all cylinders. They rank 2nd overall and are top 5 in both batting average and home runs. Gunnar Henderson has been a key contributor, hitting .293 with 27 home runs and a .983 OPS. In contrast, the Cubs’ offense has struggled, ranking 19th overall, 24th in batting average, and 23rd in home runs. However, Ian Happ has been a bright spot, particularly over the last week, hitting .500 with 3 home runs and 11 RBIs.

Despite yesterday’s loss, the Orioles are favored to win today with a Moneyline of -170, translating to a 61% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, backs this up with a 60% projected win probability for Baltimore, making them a strong pick in this matchup. Expect them to leverage their power and Burnes’ dominant pitching to even the series.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  Shota Imanaga is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Dansby Swanson has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 95.8-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago’s 92.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #6 club in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Corbin Burnes has used his cut-fastball 10.9% less often this season (44.5%) than he did last season (55.4%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Extreme groundball batters like Anthony Santander generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+12.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 72 games (+9.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185/-245)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 22 games at home (+9.65 Units / 44% ROI)