Live Score for Blue Jays vs Red Sox – August 27th, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays meet for their second consecutive matchup on August 27, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for a better finish to the season. Currently, the Red Sox sit at 67-64, while the Blue Jays are just behind at 65-68. With both teams having average records, every game holds significance as they look to build momentum.

In their last encounter on August 26, the Blue Jays triumphed over the Red Sox with a commanding 7-3 victory, showcasing their offensive potential against an inconsistent pitching performance. The Red Sox will turn to Cooper Criswell, a right-handed pitcher who, despite being ranked as the 185th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, is projected to perform slightly better in this matchup. Criswell carries a Win/Loss record of 5-4 and an ERA of 4.41, although his xERA of 3.91 suggests he may have been a bit unlucky this season.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will rely on Yariel Rodriguez, also a right-hander, who has struggled with a 1-5 record and a similar ERA of 4.33. Rodriguez got hit hard in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs over just 4 innings, which raises concerns about his effectiveness against a potent Red Sox lineup.

The Red Sox offense, currently ranked 4th best in MLB, boasts a strong lineup led by Jarren Duran, who has been hot lately—hitting .417 over the last week. Meanwhile, the projections indicate that the Red Sox could score around 5.19 runs today, positioning them as solid favorites with a high implied team total of 5.07 runs. This matchup favors Boston, especially given Toronto’s struggles both offensively and in their bullpen, ranked 23rd in MLB. With the stakes high, the Red Sox will aim to bounce back and even the series.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yariel Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Over his last 3 GS, Yariel Rodriguez has experienced a sizeable fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2384 rpm over the whole season to 2328 rpm recently.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Addison Barger is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (20.2 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone set of batters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Cooper Criswell – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Cooper Criswell has recorded 13.7 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 5th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Tyler O’Neill’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 91-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 79.5-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Boston Red Sox hitters as a unit rank 4th- in the league for power this year when using their 9.1% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 73 of their last 128 games (+8.00 Units / 5% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 22 away games (+11.95 Units / 37% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-125/-105)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+14.65 Units / 38% ROI)