Learn How to Watch the Braves vs Nationals Game – September 11, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on September 11, 2024, the stakes are clear. The Nationals, sitting at 64-80, are struggling this season, while the Braves boast a solid record of 79-66 and are in a much better position. This matchup is particularly intriguing given that the Braves won their previous encounter 12-0, showcasing their dominance on both sides of the ball.

The Nationals will send Jake Irvin to the mound, who has had a rough season with a 9-12 record and an average ERA of 4.28. Irvin’s recent performance includes a start where he was hit hard, allowing 6 earned runs in just 5 innings. In contrast, the Braves will counter with elite left-hander Max Fried, currently ranked 5th among MLB starters with a 3.35 ERA. Fried pitched brilliantly in his last outing, going 7 innings without giving up a run.

From an offensive perspective, the Nationals rank 22nd overall in the league, struggling particularly with power, as they sit 29th in home runs. Their best hitter this season has been CJ Abrams, but he has not been enough to lift the team. Meanwhile, the Braves rank 13th in offensive production and have a potent lineup led by Marcell Ozuna, who has hit 37 home runs this season.

Interestingly, projections suggest that the Nationals may be undervalued in this matchup. Although they are currently listed as underdogs with a moneyline of +145, the projections indicate they could score around 3.18 runs, which, while low, might not fully account for Irvin’s potential to turn things around against a groundball pitcher like Fried. Given the Braves’ high groundball percentage, the Nationals’ lack of power might not be as detrimental, making this matchup one to watch closely.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Because groundball batters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Max Fried (52.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 4 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  With 6 hitters who bat from the same side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Jake Irvin should benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Typically, hitters like Ildemaro Vargas who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Max Fried.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 77 of their last 136 games (+8.85 Units / 5% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 140 games (+30.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 21% ROI)