Learn How to Watch the Angels vs White Sox Game – September 24, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels, both enduring challenging seasons, face off on September 24, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, sitting at 36-120, are at the bottom of the standings, while the Angels, with a 63-93 record, are also struggling but have a slight edge. This matchup features two of the league’s less effective pitchers: Jonathan Cannon for the White Sox and Jack Kochanowicz for the Angels.

Cannon, ranked 265th among MLB starting pitchers, has a 4-10 record with a 4.61 ERA across 19 starts. Despite these numbers, his projections for the game suggest a pedestrian performance, with around 5.3 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed. Kochanowicz, meanwhile, has a slightly better ERA of 4.56 but is still considered one of the worst pitchers. His high 5.10 FIP suggests he’s been fortunate in limiting runs so far.

Offensively, both teams rank among the worst. The White Sox rank 30th in team batting average and home runs, while the Angels, despite being slightly better at 26th in offense, rank 28th in batting average. However, the Angels have an advantage in stolen bases, ranking 10th.

The Angels enter this matchup with a slight edge, with the betting markets giving them a 52% implied win probability, closely aligned with projections. Despite their struggles, the Angels’ offense, led by Jack Lopez’s recent hot streak, could be the difference-maker. Lopez has been on fire over the last week, boasting a .500 batting average and eight hits in six games. Meanwhile, Korey Lee has been the best performer for the White Sox in their last week, but his efforts may not be enough to sway the outcome. This could be a tightly contested game, but the Angels appear to have the upper hand.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given that groundball pitchers have a big edge over groundball bats, Jack Kochanowicz and his 51.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot in this game going up against 3 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Zach Neto is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Kevin Pillar pulls many of his flyballs (36.8% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Jonathan Cannon will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing bats in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jacob Amaya – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jacob Amaya has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph to 95.7-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Chicago White Sox offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 98 games (+5.25 Units / 5% ROI)
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Lenyn Sosa has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+7.30 Units / 20% ROI)