Learn How to Watch the Angels vs White Sox Game – September 24, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels, both enduring challenging seasons, face off on September 24, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, sitting at 36-120, are at the bottom of the standings, while the Angels, with a 63-93 record, are also struggling but have a slight edge. This matchup features two of the league’s less effective pitchers: Jonathan Cannon for the White Sox and Jack Kochanowicz for the Angels.

Cannon, ranked 265th among MLB starting pitchers, has a 4-10 record with a 4.61 ERA across 19 starts. Despite these numbers, his projections for the game suggest a pedestrian performance, with around 5.3 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed. Kochanowicz, meanwhile, has a slightly better ERA of 4.56 but is still considered one of the worst pitchers. His high 5.10 FIP suggests he’s been fortunate in limiting runs so far.

Offensively, both teams rank among the worst. The White Sox rank 30th in team batting average and home runs, while the Angels, despite being slightly better at 26th in offense, rank 28th in batting average. However, the Angels have an advantage in stolen bases, ranking 10th.

The Angels enter this matchup with a slight edge, with the betting markets giving them a 52% implied win probability, closely aligned with projections. Despite their struggles, the Angels’ offense, led by Jack Lopez’s recent hot streak, could be the difference-maker. Lopez has been on fire over the last week, boasting a .500 batting average and eight hits in six games. Meanwhile, Korey Lee has been the best performer for the White Sox in their last week, but his efforts may not be enough to sway the outcome. This could be a tightly contested game, but the Angels appear to have the upper hand.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)
  Jack Kochanowicz has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Logan O’Hoppe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (59% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Mickey Moniak pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Jonathan Cannon’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (60.8% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jacob Amaya – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jacob Amaya has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 104.6-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 87.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+100)
  The Chicago White Sox projected lineup grades out as the 2nd-weakest on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 98 games (+5.25 Units / 5% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Andrew Vaughn has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.00 Units / 24% ROI)