Los Angeles Angels
Toronto Blue Jays
(-110/-110)-160
As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on August 25, 2024, both teams are looking to find their footing in what has been a disappointing season. The Blue Jays currently sit with a record of 62-68, while the Angels are struggling at 54-76. In their last matchup on August 24, the Blue Jays secured a 3-1 victory, showcasing their ability to capitalize on the Angels’ struggles.
Toronto is projected to start Kevin Gausman, a right-handed pitcher who has had an average year, boasting an 11-9 record and a 4.24 ERA. However, Gausman’s 4.96 xERA indicates he may have been somewhat fortunate this season. His performance has been inconsistent, as evidenced by his last start where he pitched 5 innings, allowing 3 earned runs with 5 strikeouts. He projects to pitch 6.0 innings today, allowing 2.7 earned runs on average, which is above average.
On the other side, the Angels will counter with Tyler Anderson, a left-handed pitcher who has been below average this season with a 10-11 record and a stellar 3.46 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.78 suggests he could be due for a regression. Anderson’s last outing saw him surrender 4 earned runs over 6 innings, and he projects to allow 3.0 earned runs today, which is below average.
Despite the Blue Jays’ offensive struggles, ranking 27th in home runs and stolen bases, the projections favor them to score 4.88 runs against an Angels team that ranks 23rd in overall offense. With a high implied team total of 4.44 runs, the Blue Jays appear to have the edge, especially given their recent victory and the Angels’ ongoing issues at the plate.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Tyler Anderson has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in this matchup.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)Kevin Pillar has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.6-mph dropping to 80.3-mph in the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mickey Moniak, Niko Kavadas, Jo Adell).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Extreme groundball batters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tyler Anderson.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Toronto Blue Jays – 2H MoneylineThe Toronto Blue Jays bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 86 games (+20.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+140)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 away games (+4.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)Spencer Horwitz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+16.30 Units / 125% ROI)