Learn from the Match Preview: Yankees vs Tigers Game Forecast – August 18, 2024

New York Yankees

@

Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees prepare for their showdown on August 18, 2024, they are coming off an intriguing matchup the day prior, where the Tigers delivered a convincing 4-0 shutout against the Yankees. This game marks the third in a series where the Tigers aim to build on their recent momentum.

Currently, the Tigers sit at 60-64, having demonstrated a below-average season overall. Conversely, the Yankees, with a commendable record of 73-51, are enjoying a strong campaign. While the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, the Tigers struggle offensively, ranked 26th overall, making this matchup particularly compelling.

Detroit is set to send out ace Tarik Skubal, who has been nothing short of phenomenal this season. Skubal’s Win/Loss record is an impressive 14-4, with a standout ERA of 2.53. The advanced-stat Power Rankings indicate he is the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB. On the other side, the Yankees will counter with Marcus Stroman, who has had a less stellar season with an 8-6 record and an ERA of 4.01. Stroman’s 4.79 xFIP suggests he has benefited from a bit of luck, which might catch up to him against a skilled pitcher like Skubal.

In terms of recent performance, Skubal’s last outing on August 13 saw him pitch 6 innings, allowing only 1 earned run while striking out 9. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ offense, despite their potency, will be tested by Skubal’s strong control and high strikeout rates. The projections suggest a close matchup, with the Tigers suggested to have a slight edge in this contest, reflecting their potential to continue their winning ways against the Yankees.

New York Yankees Insights

• Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  Tallying 93.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Marcus Stroman places in the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  In today’s matchup, Gleyber Torres is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.4% rate (90th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Tarik Skubal’s higher usage rate of his fastball this season (53.5 compared to 48.1% last year) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Kerry Carpenter has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph to 99-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers’s expected catcher today) projects as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+165)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+12.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 90 games (+20.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Austin Wells has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.85 Units / 47% ROI)